In 2024, global average battery prices fell 20% to $115 per kWh, driven by excess production capacity in China and burgeoning low-cost battery chemistries like lithium iron phosphate.
“The good news is battery prices are now falling rapidly,” Bhandari says. Goldman Sachs Research expects a nearly 40% decline in battery prices between 2023 and 2025, and for EVs to reach breakthrough levels in terms of cost parity (without subsidies) with internal combustion engine cars in some markets next year.
Why are battery prices falling in China in 2024?
In 2024 alone, China is expected to produce enough cells to meet 92% of global demand, creating downward pressure on prices. Cheaper Materials: A decline in the costs of metals and components, coupled with the adoption of more affordable lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, has further driven the price drop.
The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991 was just $181 in 2018. That's 41 times less. What's promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.
Will a drop in green metal prices push electric vehicle battery prices lower?
Technology advances that have allowed electric vehicle battery makers to increase energy density, combined with a drop in green metal prices, will push battery prices lower than previously expected, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
How much will battery electric cars cost in 2026?
Our researchers forecast that average battery prices could fall towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars in the US on an unsubsidized basis. Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, SNE Research, Goldman Sachs Research
Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline). Our analysts estimate that almost half of the decline will come from declining prices of EV raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt.